Retail inflation declined to a five-month low of 4.85 per cent in March mainly due to cooling food prices, inching towards the Reserve Bank's target of 4 per cent, according to official data released on Friday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.09 per cent in February and 5.66 per cent in March 2023. Previously, CPI-based inflation was the lowest at 4.87 per cent in October 2023.
Historically, the RBI has tried to keep the crooks at bay by issuing a circular a day. What it needs is more onsite supervision. Merely checking high-frequency data with the help of technology is insufficient, notes Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Here are the highlights of the monetary policy announced by RBI governor Shaktikanta Das on Friday.
Is the RBI unable to accept with grace that beyond 55, one can have the ability to head the compliance functions in a bank, asks Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
The central bank can directly print money and finance the government, but it should avoid doing so unless there is absolutely no alternative, former RBI governor D Subbarao on Wednesday said while pointing out that India is 'nowhere' near such a scenario. In an interview with PTI, Subbarao suggested that to deal with the second wave of COVID-19 induced slowdown in the economy, the government can consider Covid bonds as an option to raise borrowing, not in addition to budgeted borrowing, but as a part of that.
Equity benchmark Nifty scaled the psychological milestone of 21,000 in afternoon trade on Friday, and the Sensex touched its all-time intraday high of 69,888.33 after the central bank's decision to keep policy rates unchanged in line with market expectations. The 50-share benchmark index opened on a bullish note, after taking a breather on Thursday, and rose to 21,006.10. As many as 25 stocks were trading in the green, and 24 stocks defied the broader market and were trading in the negative territory.
'Only the coming years will tell whether the government finds this an easy way of relieving itself from its fiscal constraints.'
Most members of the Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee (MPC) decided to stick to the course on bringing retail inflation to the target of 4 per cent while voting for maintaining status quo in the April review, except external member Jayanth Varma who voted for a 25 bps cut in the repo rate. "I believe that the extant monetary policy setting is well positioned," RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said in the minutes of the policy review, which came out on Friday. "Monetary policy transmission is continuing and inflation expectations of households are also getting further anchored.
Global trends, macroeconomic data, and the outcome of the US Fed policy meeting are the major factors that will drive the movement in the domestic equity markets this week, analysts said. "In the upcoming data-centric week, the focus will be on crucial releases, including inflation data from India and the US. "Indian inflation is expected to rise, while US inflation will remain steady.
The government on Wednesday appointed RBI's senior-most executive director M Rajeshwar Rao as the deputy governor of the central bank. Rao was appointed to the post vacated by N S Vishwanathan, who stepped down three months ahead of his extended tenure on health grounds.
The BJP member also sought to put the LVB-DBS merger on hold in order to facilitate a forensic audit of the takeover of the assets of both banks.
The economy may grow by around 7 per cent this financial year as estimated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), say economists with various organisations. The first advance estimates for 2023-24 will be released on Friday by the National Statistical Organisation (NSO), an exercise done for calculating ratios such as the fiscal deficit. The interim Budget will be presented on February 1.
Striking a different note from its peers, US brokerage Bank of America Securities has maintained that the Reserve Bank will leave rates unchanged next week, recognising growth-focused and capex-driven fiscal expansion, which though poses huge price pressure and interest rate risks later. The RBI's rate setting panel Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will begin its deliberations next Monday and announce the policy moves on Wednesday (February 9) in the backdrop of a massive spike in bond yields post the Budget. Almost all major central banks are in the process of hiking rates to tame inflation.
'Three external members of the first MPC are respected researchers with excellent academic background, but there is no harm in considering academicians with diverse backgrounds such as finance and labour along with economists for this body,' recommends Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Consumer goods firms and auto companies are witnessing an upturn in rural demand, which had been lagging for most of FY24. Expectations of a bumper rabi crop harvest have helped turn the tide. The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI's) Monetary Policy Committee kept the repo rate unchanged last week, noting that as rural demand catches up, consumption is expected to support economic growth in 2024-25.
The panel will include Economic Affairs Secretary Subhash Chandra Garg and RBI Deputy Governor N S Vishwanathan.
Maintaining 4 per cent inflation is appropriate for India as targeting a lower rate could impart deflationary bias to the monetary policy, said a Reserve Bank paper. Under the current dispensation, the RBI has been mandated by the government to maintain retail inflation at 4 per cent with a margin of 2 per cent on either side. The paper, authored by RBI Deputy Governor Michael Debabrata Patra and another official Harendra Kumar Behera, has found a steady decline in trend inflation to 4.1-4.3 per cent since 2014.
Penalty must act as a deterrent. If it is too low, it could encourage the regulated entities to lap up penalty instead of complying with the norms, suggests Tamal Bandyopadhyay.
Analysts at Barclays pitched for a 0.25 per cent cut to generate demand advising the central bank to throw caution to the wind.
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday expectedly left interest rates unchanged and maintained an accommodative stance as the economy faces a renewed threat to growth due to the resurgence of coronavirus cases.
'The Jalan Committee has now provided very clear guidelines on how the (RBI's) balance sheet should be looked at, what kind of disclosures should be made, what are the principles on which the Contingency Risk Buffer should be maintained, what should be the revaluation reserves, and the market risk to the Contingency Risk Buffer.'
Taking advantage of the RBI's different accounting year, the Centre had started demanding an interim dividend till the time the latter's final balance sheet is prepared (usually in August). To address this anomaly, an expert committee led by former RBI governor Bimal Jalan had recommended aligning the RBI's financial year with that of the government.
The Reserve Bank on Thursday permitted banks to increase charges for cash and non-cash ATM transactions beyond free monthly permissible limit from next year. Bank customers will have to pay Rs 21 per transaction, instead of Rs 20, with effect from January 1, 2022, if they exceed the monthly limit of free transactions. "To compensate the banks for the higher interchange fee and given the general escalation in costs, they are allowed to increase the customer charges to Rs 21 per transaction. "This increase shall be effective from January 1, 2022," the RBI said in a circular.
India decisively withstood global headwinds in 2023 and is likely to remain as the world's fastest-growing major economy on the back of growing demand, moderate inflation, stable interest rate regime and robust foreign exchange reserves. Despite widespread pessimism witnessed among the developed nations and the worsening geopolitical situation, India recorded a gross domestic product (GDP) expansion of 6.1 per cent in the March quarter. The growth moved up to 7.8 per cent in the June quarter and was 7.6 per cent in the September quarter. For the first six months of this fiscal, the growth was 7.7 per cent.
'If rate cuts happen, bond yields will come down and investors will make mark-to-market capital gains on them.'
With retail inflation witnessing significant uptick in May, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to maintain status quo in its August monetary policy review, according to a report. According to the SBI's research report- Ecowrap, inflation may remain elevated in the coming months due to several global and domestic factors. "We expect a status-quo in August. We believe RBI would still try to find a marriage of convenience of regulatory and developmental measures and monetary policy in August policy," the research report said on Wednesday.
'To the believers of crypto regulations, I have only one question to ask, how will you regulate it?'
The Supreme Court on Wednesday allowed banks and financial institutions to provide services related to cryptocurrencies by setting aside the RBI's 2018 circular which had prohibited them. A three-judge bench, headed by Justice R F Nariman, said the Reserve Bank of India circular is liable to be set aside on the ground of "proportionality". "Accordingly, the writ petitions are allowed and the circular dated April 6, 2018 is set aside," said the bench, also comprising justices Aniruddha Bose and V Ramasubramanian.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday kept key repo rate unchanged at 4 per cent in view of rising inflation and faint signs of economic growth amid gradual lifting of coronavirus (COVID-19) lockdown. The central bank's newly-constituted monetary policy committee (MPC) began its three-day meeting on October 7 and maintained the stance as accommodative. It also kept the reverse repo rate unchanged at 3.35 per cent.
The Reserve Bank's rate-setting panel began its three-day deliberations on Monday to decide the next monetary policy amid expectations that the central bank will maintain status quo on the benchmark interest rate in the backdrop of global scare due to the new coronavirus variant Omicron. Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das headed six-member Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) is scheduled to announce the policy resolution on Wednesday. If the RBI maintains status quo in policy rates on Wednesday, it would be the ninth consecutive time since the rate remains unchanged.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) unions have decided to intensify their stir demanding revision of wages, pending since November 2017, and have called for mass casual leave of employees at the central bank on November 30. However, several sources in the RBI told Business Standard that the unions may not have to go on agitation, as the new contours of the wage pact have been almost finalised and could be announced any time. An email sent to the RBI was not answered. The United Forum of Reserve Bank Officers and Employees had deferred its agitation earlier after it was told that RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das was to hold talks with the human resource management department (HRMD).
This is the second high profile resignation in the past six months at the Reserve Bank of India.
Fitch Solutions sees RBI keeping benchmark interest rates unchanged during the fiscal to March 2022 following its decision to buy Rs 1 lakh crore of government bonds. "We had initially expected another policy rate cut to arrest the rise in government bond yields since the Union Budget announcement in February. "However, having an explicit bond purchase guidance from the RBI following the announcement of the G-SAP will also achieve a similar effect, if not even be more effective than a rate cut on capping the increase in bond yields," it said in a note. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) held its policy repurchase (repo) rate unchanged at 4 per cent at its monetary policy meeting on April 7.
India's economic growth is estimated to have slowed down to 11-year low of 5 per cent during the current financial year ending March 2020.
'The revenue projection arises out of all sectors doing well and the formalisation of the economy helps in making sure the tax domain gets widened.'
The poll panel said it found Kharge's letter, placed in the public domain in the middle of the ongoing electoral process, 'highly undesirable' and designed to create confusion, misdirection and impediment to the conduct of smooth, free and fair elections.
The rising COVID-19 infections across the country are a matter of concern, but it may not impact the ongoing economic revival as one does not foresee lockdowns, Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das said on Thursday. The economic revival will continue "unabated", Das said, asserting that there is no need for a downward revision of RBI's 10.5 per cent GDP growth forecast for FY22. Speaking at Times Network's India Economic Conclave, Das said, "We have 'insurance' to protect economic revival like a fast-paced vaccination drive, greater ability among people to follow COVID protocols", and one does not see lockdowns as well.
Rs 5,000 crore additional liquidity facility to be provided by the National Housing Bank to boost liquidity in housing sector, the RBI said.
Central banking is a science, not an art, Tamal Bandyopadhyay tells RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
Y H Malegam, 80, will head the panel that will look into non-performing bank assets and their relation to the Rs 114-bn PNB scam.
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